IMPLICATIONS OF MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA

^1*Osuji, E. E, ²Okwara, M. O., ³Eze, E. U., & ⁴Tim-Ashama, A.

¹Department of Agricultural Economics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike

²Department of Agricultural Economics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Imo State

³Department of Agricultural Technology, Federal Polytechnic Nekede Owerri, Imo State

⁴Department of Agricultural Science, Alvan Ikoku Federal College of Education Owerri, Imo State

Email: osujiemeka2@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT  

In recent time, the impact of macro-economic variables on agriculture has become an issue of concern in terms of securing adequate food supply for the populace. The study evaluated the implications of macro-economic variables for national food security in Nigeria. This study employed time series data sourced from the publications of Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Reports, Statistical Bulletins and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning from 1995 to 2015. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test with error correction model (ECM) was adopted to substantiate the implications of macro-economic variables for national food security in Nigeria. The results of the ADF test showed that Food security, Interest rate, Exchange rate, Net export and Government expenditures were non stationary at their respective level forms and became stationary at first difference. While Inflation and Money supply were found to be stationary at level form. ARDL bounds test for cointegration confirms the existence of long run relationship between the variables. The results of long run and short run relationships shows that INT, INF, GEXP and MS were both significant at 5% and 1% levels indicating that these variables had a significant impact on food security. The estimated error correction coefficient of -0.7996 is highly significant, has the correct sign, and implies a fairly high speed of adjustment to equilibrium after a shock. However, these findings recommend farmers to take good advantage of the linkages between macroeconomic variables and agricultural productivity, as this useful information can assist them to boost their land productivity, hence increased food security at all times. 

Keywords: Implications, Macro-economic Variables, Food Security, Error Correction Model, Nigeria